Delphi method: application examples

Among the currently available tools designed to select and evaluate the effectiveness of solutions, the Delphi method, or, as it is also called, the Delphi method, occupies a special place. It is very effective both in everyday life and in the professional field of activity, because it allows you to take into account the opinions of all people who are related to any issue, through the consistent combination of considerations, proposals and conclusions, and then come to a specific agreement. The Delphic method is easy to use, and any person or group of people can use it, it is only important to know how it is done.

What is the Delphi method

In short, the Delphi method is one way to make complex decisions. Ideas are developed through brainstorming, interviews, and surveys. Often people who do not know each other, constantly maintaining contact with each other, give an assessment of the problem. And then they offer options for getting rid of it.

When using the methodology, you can get an expert opinion on certain issues from each participant in the event. It is believed that people who do not depend on each other are more effective in solving the tasks assigned to them compared to teams formed in advance.

The Delphic method appeared in the 50-60s of the last century. It was developed by the American strategic. The main goal is to forecast the impact of new technologies on warfare. Creators of the method: Olaf Helmer, Norman Dalkey, Nicholas Rescher.

By the way, the technology owes its name to the Delphic Oracle. This is a soothsayer at the temple of Apollo, which was located in Delphi. According to ancient Greek mythology, it was here that Apollo destroyed the serpent Python. The Pythia (priestess) acted as an oracle, but all her words were interpreted by the priests who served at the temple.

The Delphi technique refers to heuristic decision-making methods and quantitative research methods. In Western countries, the Delphi forecasting method is popular. It is most often used in the strategic planning process. In the Russian Federation it is rarely used and only by large companies.

There are 2 reasons. First: it is not customary to hold such events in the country. Second: the lack of specialists in this field. For years, expert commissions and analysts have tried to conform to the majority opinion. Whereas the Delphi method and other similar techniques aim to use a creative and sometimes creative approach to solving serious problems.

How did the method come about?

The history of the Delphi method is rooted in the USA, like almost everything related to management and marketing. Initially, it was developed for the military sphere with the aim of making forecasts about the impact of new scientific developments on methods of warfare. The method was born within the walls of the American Strategic Research Institute. The name comes from the name of the Delphic Oracle. Subsequently, the method began to be used in the business environment.

Main stages

As stated above, the Delphi method belongs to the group of heuristic and quantitative methods for research and forecasting. Therefore, its application begins with the selection of participants. You will need 2 groups:

Experts who express an opinion on the problem being solved.
Analysts studying expert opinion. They make the final decision.

The process consists of 3 stages.

Preliminary

The first thing to do is gather experts. There are no restrictions regarding their number. But it is recommended to invite no more than 20 people.

Basic

The action plan for the second stage looks like this:

An expert group conducts a study of the problem. Participants break down one main issue into several smaller ones. After this, analysts study their essence. Questions are grouped by prevalence and importance, and a questionnaire is compiled.
The experts come into play. They analyze the questionnaire, check whether everything is taken into account or whether something else needs to be added. You may need to search for additional information. As a result, analysts receive 20 answers and begin working on the second questionnaire.
Questions go back to the expert group. But now the goal is to propose ways to solve the problem, as well as explore the options of colleagues. Many factors are taken into account here: resources, relevance of the proposed ideas, opportunities. Assignment for the analytical group: research expert opinions, identify similar ones among them. If an idea is very different from others, analysts report it. Their colleagues will reconsider it and perhaps change their position.

The steps are repeated until the first group reaches a consensus. Finally, the participants analyze the work done and draw up an action plan for the practical application of their idea.

Analytical

At this stage of the Delphic oracle method, the activities of both groups are assessed, and the final verification of expert assessments and the chosen solution is carried out.

Who is taking part in the study?

The range of participants includes the following roles:

facilitator who is responsible for organizing the process as a whole. He is responsible for selecting the remaining participants, moderating the work of the groups, and also makes a decision based on the results. Depending on the scale of the object of study, there may be several facilitators. It is better if they are from different structures, not adjacent.
an expert group that consists of specialists in various fields relevant to the topic. This is necessary in order to consider the subject from all sides, taking into account all the nuances and complexities.
a group of analysts that reviews the experts’ answers, identifies the general and the specific in them, and generates a new list of questions and recommendations for solutions.

Features of the Delphi method

The main features of the technique: anonymity, absenteeism. It is multi-level. Anonymous and correspondence studies avoid the influence of the opinions of experienced participants on others. Members of each group can work with the questionnaire in the workplace. They will receive the data by regular mail or email.

Decision-making in practice using the Delphi research method has a number of features:

Questions must be precise, clear, and without double meaning. Clarity is the main condition here.
The panel must be able to respond in words and numbers.
Experts need to be given all the information that is relevant to the problem being solved. This will help you understand the essence and make correct predictions.
Answers need to be justified.
There should not be many participants in the expert group. The main requirement for them is stability.
The optimal break between two separate stages is no more than a month.
The steps are repeated as many times as necessary to thoroughly study the problem, as well as conduct the most accurate analysis.
The selection of experts is carried out regularly.
It is desirable that the evaluation of ideas be carried out according to a pre-agreed, clear formula.
Organizers using the Delphi method ensure that the discussion is large-scale. Criticism is allowed.

The process is led by a leader. It is important that the participants trust him and that he treats them equally, without showing disdain or bias. The presenter remains neutral, does not single out one idea or another, does not incline towards it. Its main goal is to help find the most correct solution in a given situation.

Positive sides

Each method of solving a problem has its positive and negative sides. Let's look at the positive aspects of the Delphi method:

Consensus. The main goal of the participants is to come to a common conclusion. From which it follows that at the later stages of the study they will not have disagreements about the issue. It will either be resolved by a general conclusion or will not be resolved at all.
Distance. This method does not imply the presence of a group of people in one room/city. After all, you can answer questionnaires remotely, as well as propose or refute your own and other people’s concepts. This makes this method very convenient.
Forecasting. This method can well predict events in a single version. One option, which, in the opinion of the expert group, should be the most likely, is considered correct.

Delphi Expert Methods

In management there are 2 modifications of the Delphi method. One example is the structureless stage. It is used when the task is to find a specific solution, but the participants cannot immediately correctly see and evaluate the problem.

The Express Delphi technique is less common. As the name suggests, it helps save a lot of time. This is the main advantage. The process takes several hours. But there is one important feature: the work requires a technical base.

Experts are studying the problem - each at their own computer. All computers are connected to the manager. After the first proposals appear, analysts quickly need to check the activities of their colleagues. Speed plays the most important role here.

The need for speed is the main disadvantage of Express-Delphi. Experts may not have time to carefully study and think through the problem.

Problems of use in Russia

The use of the Delphi method and examples of problem solving in Russia were found in very small quantities. This is due to the fact that:

In the Soviet Union, analytics was a centralized process, which is why the conformity of many experts is extremely high. This suggests that the chance of highlighting the wrong solution to a problem increases.
Lack of independent analytical structures.
Lack of traditions. The Delphi method was not in demand in Russia earlier, which means there is little likelihood of its spread today.

Pros and cons of the method

Like any other decision-making technique, the Delphi technique has advantages and disadvantages. The first include:

Ease of use.
The process takes into account the opinions of all participants in both groups.
Experts and analysts learn to think independently.
The task at hand is studied from all sides.

Adjustable communication is another advantage of the Delphi method. The Delphic method is applicable in international relations, economics and other areas. There are several disadvantages to this method of forecasting and finding solutions:

Event organizers have great powers. Therefore, experts are defenseless against them.
A decision based on collective opinion is not always the right one.
It is known that creative or creative solutions are often correct. But representatives of the analytical group reject them, considering them ridiculous and unpopular among the majority.
The analytical stage takes a lot of time. You can solve the problem quickly. But it is unlikely that specialists will be able to conduct a qualitative analysis.
Some participants are afraid to express their own opinions, which is why they lean toward the ideas of the majority.
Organizers or presenters sometimes put pressure on experts and manipulate them.

To eliminate these shortcomings, it is worth taking a number of steps:

Organizers must belong to different companies, structures, and social areas.
Run the problem several times through different groups.

And one more piece of advice. Do not immediately eliminate creative ideas. Let them remain at least as additional options.

Negative sides

There are many more negative aspects to this technique. Some of them are not very significant, while others, on the contrary, are capable of smashing to smithereens the entire set of proposed ways to solve the problem. However, this does not mean that it is ineffective. Let's look at the arguments in more detail:

Narrow thinking of the group. The majority opinion is not always the only correct one. This is a thesis that does not require proof. Even though all points of view will be heard, it does not change the fact that the conclusion will be true or false. And due to the fact that the essence of the method lies in the adoption of one method, there cannot be several points of view that are opposite in meaning.
Conformism. Research can be misdirected by a group of conformists trying to be part of the majority. Thus, they take the research down a deliberately false path.
A large amount of time wasted. Each stage of the Delphi method lasts at least a day. And given the fact that the stages of surveys and summing up may be repeated, the study may be delayed.
Different areas. A group of experts can be brought together from different institutions and sectors of society, which makes it very difficult to draw general conclusions, since due to differences in worldview it becomes more difficult for experts to agree with each other.
Paradoxical. If you use the Delphi method on two different groups of experts, the conclusions drawn by them may differ radically. And since this method asserts that the final recommendations for solving the problem are correct, it turns out that we have two correct sets of recommendations at once, which in some cases is excluded.
Originality and correctness of decisions. The most original or correct solutions may take a secondary place in the hierarchy of recommendations.

Practical use

It seems that the Delphi method is too difficult to use. But actually it is not. Let's give an example. Let's say an oil company plans to replace the divers inspecting platforms underwater with robots. It is necessary to evaluate the feasibility of such a replacement.

To work using the Delphi method, the company assembles an expert group. It consists of divers, engineers, robot designers and other specialists. The task is to determine in what period of time the verification can be automated.

After the first round of discussions, experts outlined the period from 2000 to 2050. Due to too much variation, the procedure had to be repeated. After discussion and evaluation of all proposals and ideas, a final forecast was drawn up. According to him, the possibility of using robots will appear in 2005-2015. During this time, the company will have time to draw up an action plan and make preliminary preparations for the introduction of new technologies.

Theoretical aspects of management decision making

Development of a management decision is one of the most important management processes. The success of the entire organization largely depends on its effectiveness. A managerial decision is a choice of the optimal alternative made by a manager within the framework of his official powers and competence, taking into account the factors of the external and internal environment of the organization and in order to achieve the goals of the organization.

Currently, it is customary in management to distinguish between two levels of decision-making: individual and organizational. Individual decisions are sometimes informal, but, nevertheless, responsibility for the consequences of their execution equally lies on the shoulders of the leader. The essence of organizational decisions is the choice that a manager makes to accomplish the tasks assigned to him in his position.

Among the first are the so-called programmed management decisions. They are the result of following a specific sequence of steps or actions performed by solving complex mathematical equations. Typically, the number of possible alternatives is limited and the choice must be made within the direction given by the organization.

Programmable decisions are determined by circumstances and are always made with a “clear view” of the future. And in order for such decisions to be made automatically in repeating situations, they can be standardized and formalized, which provides a significant time advantage.

Non-programmed decisions, unlike the first category of organizational decisions, must be made under conditions of uncertainty and sometimes risk. Since it is impossible to determine in advance a specific sequence of steps, the manager must develop a system (procedure) for making a decision, which depends on many factors and includes a large number of options.

It should be added that in practice there are neither programmed nor non-programmed management decisions in their pure form. And few programmed decisions are structured in such a way that they completely exclude the initiative of the person making them. There is always a choice, and this choice is useful because its successful implementation creates a precedent that can be used to solve other problems in the future.

In decision-making situations under uncertainty, a complex problem can be broken down into individual components that the manager has already learned about and has an idea of how to proceed in the future. Thus, rational and effective decision making is an area of management skill that develops with the experience acquired by the manager in management situations of varying degrees and types.

The process of organizing and reorganizing management decisions is based on the choice of priority in an individual or collegial (group) approach. An individual approach to the development of management decisions is very characteristic of an organization. This approach requires the manager to have confidence in his abilities, professionalism and creativity. Such solutions require less time to develop. The developer of such solutions is personally responsible for the results of implementation.